Stephen A.
Dukker is talking a mile a minute, his excited
voice filling the small conference room. He's
fiddling with a laptop PC, some cables, and a
tiny gizmo that looks like something you might
pick up in the accessories aisle at Radio Shack
(RSH ) as he prepares to demonstrate the wares
of tiny NComputing Co. "I have not been this
excited about a company...ever," says Dukker,
NComputing's chairman. "I'm afraid I'm going to
have a stroke, I'm so excited!"
That's because Dukker is convinced
NComputing has discovered one of techdom's holy
grails: a computer cheap enough for the world's
PC-less masses. Actually, not a computer.
NComputing's gizmo—this one, the unsexily named
L100 model—once attached to a mouse, keyboard,
and monitor, can be used to tap into a PC
somewhere else, across the room or across the
continent, at a far lower cost than owning a PC
yourself. Dukker's cost is less than $50 per
user, vs. $250 for a cut-rate desktop PC. And if
volumes rise as he hopes, that price could fall
below $10. "Pretty soon, we'll have reached the
point that the hardware is essentially free,"
says Dukker.
It's the return of the "thin
client," one of Silicon Valley's most hyped
concepts of the 1990s. Luminaries such as Oracle
Corp. (ORCL ) chief Lawrence J. Ellison and Sun
Microsystems Inc.'s chairman Scott G. McNealy
gushed back then over the idea that rather than
own powerful PCs, Netizens could use these
disk-less, processor-less "dumb" devices to
access files and programs, stored on some remote
server, via the Internet. It kind of made sense.
After all, the disk drive and processor in your
PC make up about 40% of the materials cost. And
who uses all that processing power, anyway? For
many of us, a PC is for sending e-mail and
surfing the Web. Unless you're designing rocket
ships or flying them in some graphics-rich video
game, you barely test a PC's
limits.
AHEAD OF ITS
TIME
But reality stepped in.
With PC prices falling ever lower, customers had
a choice between a full-fledged PC and an
unproven thin-client device that cost just about
as much. The few models that sold were priced
over $500 after expensive software licenses were
taken into account. So they never really caught
on. Today, all the attempts to reach the world's
poor are focused on finding ways to make cheaper
PCs. One of the most publicized efforts is the
nonprofit "One Laptop per Child" program led by
Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Nicholas
Negroponte. The computer uses free Linux
software rather than Microsoft's Windows and
comes with a crank for people who don't have
access to reliable power, or the means to pay
for it.
But maybe, just maybe, the thin
client was simply ahead of its time. Broadband
connections, after all, are far more widespread
today. And millions of people are comfortable
with using Net-based software such as Google
(GOOG ) and MySpace (NWS ). Now venture
capitalists are starting to fund thin-client
companies again, such as Teradici Corp. of
Canada. Even PC giant Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ )
is ramping up sales of $300-plus thin-client
terminals to companies that want to cut the cost
of managing software-packed PCs. HP sees a day
when consumers will pay a phone company or Net
service provider only for the minutes of
computing they use over a dumb terminal. "This
is not just a 'wouldn't it be nice,"' says
Philip McKinney, chief technology officer for
HP's Personal Systems Group. "There are a lot of
things that are starting to converge that begin
to make this make sense."
Here's where
Dukker would beg to differ. He says it's already
happening. Despite having no real sales or
marketing effort, NComputing has sold more than
100,000 units since 2004, and is on pace to sell
nearly that many in the remainder of the year.
Most are going to small companies and school
districts in places like Brazil, Thailand, and
Ghana. But interest is picking up with U.S.
schools as well. Since stumbling upon
NComputing's Web site, Tracy Smith, the director
of technology for the Fremont School district in
rural southeastern Idaho, has replaced 240
ancient PCs running Windows 98 with 80
NComputing devices. "I haven't told our Dell
salespeople I'm doing this. But that's 240
computers that Dell didn't sell
me."
O.K., so Dukker isn't turning the
computer industry on its head just yet. But the
role of change agent is one that is familiar to
him. In 1998, Dukker's eMachines came roaring
out of the gate to log $814 million in sales in
its first year by selling nearly marginless
machines that forced HP and IBM to get serious
about sub-$1,000 PCs. Now that price band makes
up more than 80% of all home PC sales. But there
are legions of potential customers for whom even
today's rock-bottom PC prices are too high.
Former eMachines executive Young Song started
NComputing (he's now CEO) after discovering that
the company was unable to entice some people
with $299 machines that had been returned and
refurbished. To tap that market, Song says, "I
knew we needed a new technology."
He
needed a new job, as well. Song left eMachines
soon after Dukker was pushed out in 2001, when
the company nearly went broke. In 2003, Song
connected with co-founder Klaus Maier, who had
worked for more than a decade on software that
would let you divvy up an operating system and
distribute it among many users over the
Internet.
By late 2004 they'd converted
that software into a cheap chip packaged inside
a plastic enclosure with the circuitry to
control a mouse, keyboard, and monitor. Thus was
born the non-PC. Add in energy savings (the
devices consume about 5% as much power as a PC)
and lower support costs (there's little inside
that can break), and you start to see the logic.
Dukker will really push his case once NComputing
completes a $20 million-plus round of venture
financing. Co-founder Song says the goal is to
sell one million units by 2008, and not just as
PC replacements. NComputing is talking with
makers of TVs, cash registers, factory
equipment—anything that could benefit from
offering a PC-like experience.
Sounds
big. But then so did the thin client. And there
is one big potential legal obstacle.
NComputing's technology in effect lets as many
as 30 people use a single copy of Microsoft's
Windows. NComputing doesn't resell Windows but
leaves it for customers to interpret whether
they're covered by their Windows license.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT ) hasn't said exactly how
it feels about that yet, but you can imagine the
possibilities. There's also the practical
consideration of depending on uninterrupted
Internet service in the Third World to use one
of these devices. Says MIT's Negroponte in an
e-mail: "Please remember that in my world,
connections are spotty."
So maybe
Dukker's campaign is a bit of a windmill tilt
after all. "There's always been this idea that
people have way too much computing power on
their desks, but the fact is that people don't
want to cede control back to a central
authority," says Stephen Baker, a PC analyst for
NPD Group. "History tells me this is likely to
be a nichey product that doesn't get a lot of
traction."
That's not dampening Dukker's
spirits at all. "We are a signpost that there's
a new approach that could drive the cost of the
client device to nothing," he says. "This could
change the world."